Florida's population slowing to 30-year low, study shows

A new study has reaffirmed a growing demographic trend in Florida: The state is seeing its population growth slow to its lowest level in three decades.

So says a University of Florida professor who reviewed building permits and residential electric customer data to draw projections on the state's population growth.

''The state has not experienced a decline of this magnitude since the mid-1970s, when we were in a national recession,'' said Stan Smith, an economist and director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The Census Bureau has made similar findings in its tracking of population growth in Florida. In a report released earlier this month, Census officials reported a net gain in the state's population of just 35,301 between 2006 and 2007. The figure was much lower than the 170,099 gain tabulated from 2005 to 2006.

The lower rate of growth is caused largely by people leaving South Florida, where the cost of living is driving them away from the region.

In his study, Smith notes that the state's population growth is slowing because more people are leaving than moving into the state. He expected Florida to add an average of only about 209,000 residents a year between 2007 and 2010, compared with annual increases of about 418,000 people during the previous five-year period.

Florida still remains a major destination for retirees, but more and more twenty- and thirty-something year-olds -- the lion's share of the state's movers -- have left, Smith said.

That same segment of the population represented the largest group moving to Florida during the past four or five decades.

Smith attributes the recent departures to Florida's sagging housing market, high cost of living and the overall economic malaise plaguing the nation.

Florida enjoyed a boom in real estate and construction from 2002 to 2006 -- just as it did from 1971 to 1979, Smith notes.

He adds that fewer job opportunities in Florida have curbed the influx of younger people.

''The question is, will Florida rebound as it has in the past?'' Smith said. ``We're guessing it will, but that is certainly not a guarantee.''

Smith projects that Florida's population will return to a ''more normal growth'' level of about 317,000 a year between 2010 and 2020, similar to the 1980s and 1990s.

Even with slow growth in population statewide, there is one county likely to enjoy strong growth: tiny Lafayette County in North Florida. It is predicted to grow the fastest in percentage terms between 2007 and 2010 because of prison construction, Smith said.

During that period, Lafayette County is expected to add 1,000 people, reaching a population of 9,200, he said.

Many of Florida's steadily growing counties -- such as Flagler on the East Coast -- will still lure newcomers.

In terms of absolute numbers, the following counties are expected to make the biggest gains between 2007 and 2010:

• Miami-Dade, from 2,462,292 to 2,512,300, due to foreign migration.

• Orange, from 1,105,603 to 1,154,200

• Hillsborough, from 1,192,861 to 1,234,900.

Broward is not among the biggest-growing counties in actual numbers, according to the latest estimates by the Census Bureau.

In a report released on March 20, Census officials estimated that the number of people in Broward fell by more than 13,000 people -- or about 1 percent -- to 1,759,591 from 2006 to 2007.

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