'Moscow Has Maneuvered Itself into a Dead End'

Russian President dismayed Western leaders on Tuesday when he recognized the independence of the two Georgian provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Many German commentators argue that Moscow may look strong now, but in reality it is cutting off its nose to spite its face.

AP

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has upset the West by recognizing the Georigan breakaway provinces.

Moscow's decision to recognize Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has made it clear that the current Russian leadership places no great value on ties with the West. That, at least, seems to be the tenor of the response by world leaders to Tuesday's announcement by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Still, despite the harsh words, there seems little the West can do to confront a confrontational Moscow.

Medvedev said on Tuesday that Georgia had forced Russia's hand by trying to reassert control over the two regions, both of which had run their own affairs since wars with Tbilisi in the early 1990s. Georgian troops launched an attack on South Ossetia on Aug. 7 but were quickly forced out of the region by a huge Russian counter-attack which then pushed deep into Georgia proper.

The West had been trying to persuade Russia to withdraw its troops from Georiga, but Moscow continues to maintain a military presence. The decision to recognize the breakaway regions' independence makes the prospects of sending in international observers and peacekeepers to maintain the cease-fire all the more unlikely.

Still, some in Europe are urging the West to keep a level head. In an opinion piece for the tabloid Bild on Wednesday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier writes: "By recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia has turned up the heat on the conflict. That is irresponsible. But exactly for that reason, we in the West cannot react without careful thought.... Conflicts can only be solved with one another and in an atmosphere of respect and mutual trust."

On Wednesday German commentators assess the damage Moscow's decision will have on relations with the West. And many argue that it is Russia itself that will suffer the consequences in the long term.

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"For weeks Moscow's leadership has been escalating an isolationist furor … The president and government are eagerly breaking bridges that they had carefully built …"

"The exchange of goods, military cooperation on fighting terrorism, diplomatic efforts to keep Iran in check, none of these seem to hold any value for the Russians now."

"It is as if Russia has suddenly woken up and realized that for years it had chased the illusions of compromises and partnerships, and now it is celebrating the break with the West as an act of liberation."

"Moscow sees itself as a new global policeman … the protector of the small nations. However, even small friendly neighboring countries regard this with distrust, looking fearfully at their own Russian minorities, because Russia could use this as a pretext for military action -- as it did in Georgia. Saakashvili had tried to commit genocide and thus had lost his right to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Medvedev said. But the Ingushetians, Chechnians and other countless Caucasus peoples also regard themselves as having been the victims of genocide. Sometimes the perpetrators were from nearby, and sometimes they were sitting in the Kremlin. The shock resulting from Medvedev's decision may be spreading across the Atlantic now, but it could actually cause an earthquake along Russia's restive flanks."

"Moscow wants to dictate its rules to the rest of the world, but for all its oil and gas it is unlikely to succeed. Instead it has maneuvered itself into a dead end, in which compromises that have already been reached seem like defeats. Only Moscow can find its way out again."

The conservative Die Welt writes:

"The Russian leadership duo seem particularly pleased that they can finally answer the diplomatic defeat represented by Kosovo. The method is simple and perfidious: Russia is playing Europe, NATO and the West at their own game. If you want to act out of empathy for the rights of ethnic minorities -- we can too. What Kosovo is to you, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are to us."

"The perfidious part of all this is naturally that Russia couldn’t care less about the rights of minorities -- as it proved in the way it dealt with Chechnya. Their priority is the effort to win back a part of the old territorial and imperial might. And what could be nicer than to do so using Western arguments?"

"It is now clear that this is just the beginning. Ukraine, which is internally divided ... will undoubtedly see its territorial integrity come under pressure."

The business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"One could accuse Russia of naked imperialism if it weren't for Kosovo. The precedent that the West has created on the doorstep of the EU and NATO was a free pass for Moscow to carry out its long prepared Georgia coup."

"It is worrying how quickly feathers have been ruffled. The hot heads in Moscow are already boasting that Russian gas supplies could be turned off if the West has any stupid ideas -- completely misjudging the true power relations. This is pretty absurd as Russia would be cutting off its nose to spite its face if it were to resort to the energy weapon."

"Russia can flex its muscles at the moment because NATO and the EU are finding it difficult to find a common line. … They don’t have any way of applying pressure on Moscow. The withdrawal of the strategic partnership and the refusal of WTO memberships won't leave much of an impression on Moscow. The Kremlin is determined to make trouble and sees confrontation as a sign of political strength. This is certainly a fallacy, but until Moscow realizes this, a lot of diplomatic damage is going to be done."

The Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"Abkhazia and South Ossetia are now, once and for all, under Russian control. All the Europeans' well-intended plans to send international observers and peacekeepers into the region are now obsolete. The Kremlin has no interest in resolving the conflict with help from outside."

"The way in which Russia has de facto annexed part of another state is brutal but it also creates clarity."

"There is no point in negotiating anything with Russia and that would also send the wrong signal. The EU cannot talk about easing visa restrictions or building up economic cooperation, when the other side has shown that it regards international treaties as little more than scraps of paper. If someone bangs a door shut, there is little point in scratching at it hopefully."

The left-leaning Berliner Zeitung writes:

"There is no question that, according to international law, South Ossetia and Abkhazia belong to Georgia. And undoubtedly the invasion of Georgia by Russia troops is a flagrant violation of international law. Russia is only recognizing the two regions out of pure power political considerations.... However, Moscow has made a volatile decision. One day the forcibly pacified Chechnya -- or indeed Ingushetia and North Ossetia -- could invoke the precedent that has now been created."

The left-leaning Die Tageszeitung writes:

"Is this act of recognition not the prelude to a new aggressive policy of regaining former (Soviet) Russian territories? Does Putin, the new Czar … want to recreate the vanished empire? This type of speculation is not backed up by the facts. The interests and the power relations between the various powers are too different across the former Soviet Union. That is why South Ossetia/Abkhazia should not be regarded as the writing on the wall. To halt the negotiations over the Georgia crisis now and adopt a common line of confrontation with Russia would be a major mistake."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"The act of recognition must be seen in context. The secession of the breakaway provinces is a result of Russian aggression; without Russia exerting a dubious influence and stationing troops there, these areas could hardly have been characterized as self-contained entities."

"Through its recognition of part of an independent state, which it had prepared for with illegal force, Russia has violated its duties to the international community. All law-abiding states have to stand together. They must not accept the new situation. The very least that is required is collective protest. Sanctions are another possibility … In the end one of the foundations of the international order is at stake."

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