America arranges a peace deal with Iran

Recently, I suggested that the US Administration reached a separate peace agreement with Iran. According to the US-Iran peace deal, Iran winded down its support for Iraqi guerrillas, and the US guaranteed it won’t bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran made good on its promise, and allowed the US Administration a tactical PR victory of reduced casualties in Iraq. The US Administration waited with fulfilling its part of the game until after the Annapolis peace show. Refusing to attack Iran over its nuclear program earlier would have likely derailed Israeli commitment to the Annapolis peace parley.

Immediately after the Annapolis, in the highly unusual move the US Administration allowed for publication of unclassified summary of the US intelligence report which asserts that Iran winded down its nuclear program… in 2003, and now “only” enriches the uranium to weapons grade. The absurd report still suggests that Iran “may” produce a nuclear weapon before 2015. Still more ridiculously, the report suggests that Iran needs several more years to produce enough nuclear material for a bomb. In fact, Iran’s 3,000 centrifuges produce enough fuel for two bombs in a year, and Russian-built Bushehr reactor allows Iran to harvest enough plutonium for a nuclear bomb in just four months. Such harvesting only requires the Iranians to stop the reactor for three weeks - not something they would hesitate to do even at the expense of reducing power supply to the national grid.

The US intelligence on nuclear developments is laughable: it missed the crucial developments in Pakistani, North Korean, Libyan, and Syrian nuclear programs. Israel intelligence estimates that Iran will have nuclear bomb by the late 2008 or 2009. Iran has nuclear-able ballistic missiles, and all the technology for producing nuclear warheads from Pakistan and North Korea.

The US Administration tolerated Pakistani nuclear weapons. The US-North Korea’s nuclear arrangement amounts to scam: North Korea merely shut down its reactor, transferred the technology to third countries, and remains ready to revamp its nuclear program at any moment. The US Administration similarly has no problem with Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. The US stand-off with Iran over the nuclear issues meant only to push Iran to negotiate on Iraq. America will continue pushing for the empty sanctions against Iran, but not attack its nuclear facilities. The US Administration sold Israeli security for Iranian help in Iraq.

Original here